Key analysis: Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam

Whats the issue?

Tensions are rising between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia after the latter started the second stage-filling of the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). The dam lies on the Blue Nile, a tributary of the Nile. The completion of the second phase means the dam now holds about 18bn cubic meters – less than one third of its total capacity. Reaching full capacity could take up to seven years. The downstream nations of Egypt and Sudan fear that the dam will limit their access to crucial Nile freshwater.

Whats the background?

Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have held several rounds of inconclusive talks hosted by the African Union (AU). Egypt and Sudan insist that the filling of the dam should have awaited a full agreement on outstanding issues, including the measures that Ethiopia would take to allow the flow of some water in the event of a drought. Egypt and Sudan had hoped to persuade the UN Security Council to intervene in the dispute.

Who are the key figures?

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (The President of Egypt) – has said that his country’s security is a redline and that he regards the EGRD project as a potential threat to that security. Egypt relies on the Nile for 97% of its water needs. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (Chairman of the Sovereignty Council of Sudan) – caught between the competing interests of Egypt and Ethiopia. Although Khartoum is not as reliant on the Blue Nile as Egypt (the country also has access to the White Nile), Sudan is still keen to resolve matters peacefully. Any conflict involving its two neighbours would almost certainly draw in the country. Abiy Ahmed Ali (Prime minister of Ethiopia) – states that the dam will generate 6,000MW of electricity once operational and essential to Ethiopia’s economic development.

Enabling factors or issues?

Abiy Ahmed is using the GERD and associated issues to promote a sense of patriotism in Ethiopia to deflect attention away from the much-criticised military action in Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray. Despite Abiy vowing the Tigray conflict would be over in weeks, it is now into its ninth month. The GERD dispute helps to strengthen his image as standing up for Ethiopia amongst the domestic audience.

What to watch?

Up until now, the mediation efforts have been centred around the AU. However, if military conflict look pending, then almost certainly the UN Security Council will get involved. Poor regional rainfall could trigger Egypt (and Sudan) to act over the reduced flow of the Nile.